1.) Swamp Fox - 09/06/2017

Pick your poison from these four. Note the mentions of/ links to more calendar and formula info at D&DH and Outdoor Life




[url]http://wiredtohunt.com/2017/05/30/2017-rut-predictions-an-earlier-more-intense-rut-than-last-year/[/url]



[url]https://www.qdma.com/no-link-moon-phase-rut-peak/[/url]

2.) Swamp Fox - 09/06/2017

There is an interesting chart showing Alsheimer's past predictions and future from 2005 through 2020 in the Oct. issue of D&DH, but I can't find it on the net to duplicate. It's worth a glance. He has several very odd years in there, including 2018 prediction, for the seek/chase phase starting well before Halloween (as early as Oct 21, 2018) and as late as Nov. 13 (2013).

3.) JGB Ohio - 09/06/2017

I tend to agree with Jeff Sturgis that the rut takes place at the same time each year. I also tend to agree that temp, wind speed, and pressure drop. It has been my experience that Alsheimer is only right when his prediction matches the historic best week in the woods in my area.

4.) Swamp Fox - 09/06/2017

I'm not sure why Alsheimer and LaRouche get so much play, since I don't know a scientific study that doesn't say peak breeding takes place at the same time brief window every year (especially in the North, where the rut is more condensed and predictable and where A&LaR concentrate).

I have a feeling that if they weren't associated with D&DH and hadn't been on the rut prediction scene very early (before we had easy access to other information) the idea that the moon determines timing of the rut would not have gained as much traction.

I'd like to get a big group of avid hunters together one year when A&LaR have one of their "out-of-phase" predictions and put field observations up against the prediction, and then gather the breeding date data for the cherry on top.

5.) JGB Ohio - 09/08/2017

[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;51425]I'm not sure why Alsheimer and LaRouche get so much play, since I don't know a scientific study that doesn't say peak breeding takes place at the same time brief window every year (especially in the North, where the rut is more condensed and predictable and where A&LaR concentrate).

I have a feeling that if they weren't associated with D&DH and hadn't been on the rut prediction scene very early (before we had easy access to other information) the idea that the moon determines timing of the rut would not have gained as much traction.

I'd like to get a big group of avid hunters together one year when A&LaR have one of their "out-of-phase" predictions and put field observations up against the prediction, and then gather the breeding date data for the cherry on top.[/QUOTE]

This is a great idea. We ought to take alshmers can't miss days and each place a trail cam at our favorite rut funnel and see if he's right. Of course I'll be watching mine in person!

6.) Swamp Fox - 09/08/2017

Next year, as I noted above, they have the seek/chase phase starting Oct.21, which is the earliest in the 2005-2020 period. I'm not sure I'll be much help with this because of where I'm located, but if HuntingCountry (or someone, LOL) got a bunch of guys who are well above A&LaR's 35th parallel to design and participate in an observational report it would be a blast to see what happens.

Of course, you might be wondering what I'm smoking, since our potentially very cool mock scrape experiment went over like a lead balloon a few years ago ... LOL

But maybe Luv2 or somebody is in tight with some Northern deer biologists who can point us to a fetus study being done that year. That won't be as much fun as reading hunters' anecdotal evidence, but it would be a start ... :-)

7.) Swamp Fox - 09/08/2017

Oct. 21 to kick things off wouldn't be *very* early in parts of SC or eastern NC. If I saw bucks seeking on Oct. 21, I wouldn't be particularly shocked, but closer to Halloween would have more activity and arguably be more normal where I spend the most time. I'll have to let others tell me if Oct. 21 is "early" where they are.

So now that I think about it, it might be even better to compare and contrast during one of A&LaR's [B]late[/B] years, such as 2019 (Nov. 8) or *really* late years, with go-dates like Nov. 16 (2010) Nov. 13 (2013) or Nov. 12 (2005).