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1.) Alex - 03/14/2020
[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Hey everyone.[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Listen, I wanted to drop a quick not to you guys regarding al this Covid-19 news youíre seeing.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Iím going to be brief and to the point. I have been following the news and the numbers along with the scientific journals and studies since the 1st week in January. I was first alerted to it when Wuhan was just barely showing any cases. Something didnít smell right back then, and so a few of us start digging. Hell, we were pulling studies offline as we expected them to end up disappearing due to being ďclassifiedĒ. (huh.. who knew?)[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Since that day we have watched and discussed every single tick along the way. The changing numbers regarding CDR and R0 rates through all of the China stage, and then onto to Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan. After that, onto to Italy, EU and now the US.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Let me be blunt. The US is on the same identical and exponential path as Italy and South Korea only we squandered the critical lead up time to get ahead of the spread of the virus. I could post news reports and lancet studies all day but suffice to say, the next 3-4 weeks in the US is going to be one hard row to sow. [/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]if you havenít seen the writing on the wall already and stocked up for your family, please do so immediately. As crazy as things seem this weekend, it pales in comparison to what we will be seeing in the following weeks ahead.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]For an unfortunate many, this whole thing was seen as an overblown media exercise until the POTUS PR earlier this week, followed by the Federal Declaration of Emergency yesterday. Sadly though, both of those actions were too far down the timeline of spread to have the impact they could have. [/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]You are about to see numbers in nearly all states skyrocket. Yes, that is because testing has been essentially non-existent (still is this morning) in most of the US. So when testing ramps up, numbers will climb. The real issue is the delay time from exposure and incubation to symptoms and progression. The Healthcare system is about to fall under a tsunami of patients, both real and perceived. I can all but assure you that they will not be able to adequately handle the speed of this. Death rates climb when HC crumbles under strain. Again, do research on what is happening in Italy if you need visuals.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]The US will end up adopting measures similar to Italy in regards to movement. There will be little choice.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Our citizenship does not handle authoritarian restrictions well (to put it mildly). This will come along with itís own set of issues.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]But the key to being able to put the health of you and your family first is being able to choose when and how you have to interact publicly. Having to go out for weekly supplies makes that far more difficult. Especially if anyone in your family is elderly and/or health compromised. Itís not about whether or not there will be food deliveries stopping. Itís all about being able to safely sit back for weeks or more and limit your general exposure to an ongoing outbreak.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]We have resolved that here. Take this from a person who lives with a full time healthcare professional and is a full time school teacher himself. Talk about being in the trenches during an outbreak. if I wanted to, we could avoid any shopping for 12 months easily. But I have been keeping that system in place for years.. not just weeks.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]I am writing this to you all in a hope that my suggestion might spur you to get yourselves secure. I would feel horrible if I didnít do otherwise.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]We can banter back and forth about how this happened, and what the numbers really are. I can cite CDR and R0 numbers that would/should scare the bejesus out of anyone. Remember, CDR is calculated across the entire age range and health of the population. That means that .0001 in one age range skews the 10% in another. Where you are on that range is critically important.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Instead of getting lost in those weeds though, I would rather simply offer up my suggestion and hope that you put faith in the fact that I do NOT fear monger. I NEVER panic and I NEVER take my eye off the ball. [/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]A few of you here (like Bob) will be able to attest to the fact that I am voracious in consuming information. I constantly try to stay 5 steps ahead and after I laid out the timelines for people weeks ago (exposure numbers, market drops, school closures, store runs, tax holidays) people keep asking me what i think will happen next. Sometimes I hate being right. The only thing I havenít gotten wrong thus far is that it is happening a full week ahed of time. I called statewide school closures on 3/21. Overwhelmed hospitals and military field stations by 3/25. We wills see how that pans out.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Well, now you guys know. If you want to call me crazy, or write this off as being overly paranoid, so be it. Trust me, Iíve heard the crazy prepper thing many times. I donít try to convince people either way these days. But I consider you all friends and as such I feel its important to give you a heads up. [/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Do whats right for you and yours and donít give a damn what others think. [/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]You can trust the advice of a guy that has a yearís worth of toilet paper :P hahah.. and that wasnít from recent panic buying either.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]You build your ark before the rain.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Be safe and be healthy. Help each other out. Check on your neighbors and family. This isnít the end of the world, but i can promise you this is already like nothing any of us have ever seen in our lifetimes and we are at the bottom of the hockey stick up.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]Alex[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Helvetica]PS... i know it's tradition but please dont hijack this thread. [/FONT][/COLOR]
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